TECHNICAL
INDICATOR’S
When
analyzing a stock, we need to know,
Whether a stock is trending up, trending down or
ranging
Strength of the trend in stock, momentum.
Overbought & Oversold levels in a stock or index
Trend reversal signals
Volatility
All
this we can do with the help of various technical indicators
INDICATOR
BASICS:
Many
indicators are available in market for use. Our aim is to master a few of them
& select a few such that each caters to a difference & specific
purpose. Then we focus on the selected group & get the most out of its
combined progressive signals.
Use
of Indicators in different market conditions.
Trending
vs Ranging Markets
It
is important to first identify whether the market is trending or ranging and to
employ indicators suited to the purpose:
No one indicator is suited to all market conditions.
Indicators
act differently in different market conditions. An indicator may act well in a
trending market, but the same indicator may fail altogether in providing profitable
signals in ranging markets.
For example, Trend indicators fail to give profitable
signals in ranging market. Fluctuations in a narrow price range produce too
many useless signals that tend to result in whipsaw.
In a
trending market, momentum indicators can remain in overbought range for a
longer period, so the interpretation of the same changes. In such periods, it
should be used as confirming indicators to trend indicators.
Three Main Functions of Indicators
PREDICT
ALERT
CONFIRM
Note: Select one indicator which will act as a primary
signal indicator to go long or short and rest of the indicators signals will
act as confirming signals on progressive basis.
INDICATOR
TIME FRAME’S
Indicators should be adjusted to reflect the cycle
being studied
The same general rule applies to moving averages and
oscillators.
With trend indicators, make the window period longer;
With
oscillators, make the period shorter.
For
example in case of Moving Averages one can use following time frames
200 Day (40 Week) MA's are popular for tracking longer
cycles;
20 to 65 Day (4 to 13 Weeks) MA's are useful for
intermediate cycles; and
5 to
20 Days for short cycles.
Type
of Indicators:
Trend Indicators
Momentum
Indicators
Overbought & Oversold range indicators
Volatility
Indicators
TREND
INDICATORS
They
are lagging indicators.
In
trending market:
They
indicate trend,
As
well as acts as support & resistance.
In
ranging market:
Should
be used to know support & resistances,
Do
not use for getting buy & sell signals from it.
Couple
of most popular TREND INDICATORS are mentioned below.
1. Moving Averages.
2.
MACD.
Use Trend Indicators,
To know established Uptrend or Downtrend: USE trend indicators to check the validity of the
trend in trending market.
Trend remains intact as long as major moving averages are respected.
Trend Reversal:
When such averages are broken, trend reversal is witnessed.
To
know support & resistances:
Underlying instruments tend to take repeated supports on its major respected
moving average.
To
get Buy & Sell Signals: USE trend
indicators in trending market to getting short term buy & sell signals that
enable us to take position in the direction of the already established long
term trend.
MOMENTUM
INDICATORS
Explanation:
Generally speaking momentum measures the
rate-of-change of a security’s price.
As the price of a security rises, price momentum tends
to increase.
The greater the momentum signals, the faster the
security rise.
Once there is signal of decrease of momentum in such
indicators, price rise intensity tends to fade.
As a security begins to trade flat, momentum starts to
actually decline from previous high levels.
However,
declining momentum in the face of sideways trading is not always a bearish
signal.
Some MOMENTUM INDICATORS that we will study are
mentioned below.
1) Relative strength index
2) ROC
3)
Stochastic Oscillator
OVERBOUGHT
& OVERSOLD RANGE INDICATORS
A stock when in a long term established trend tends to
develop short term range bound movements for some period before resuming its
longer term trend. Some indicators can help us know such short term overbought
& oversold regions.
Indicators
that help us do this are,
1)
RSI
2)
Stochastic
The
above indicators are oscillators and in ranging markets, they oscillate between
oversold & overbought ranges & produce profitable signals. They tend to
indicate potential turning points, from the levels of such unsustainable
optimism or pessimism. They are useful in a different way in trending market.
Note: The same indicators as you must have noticed, acts
as momentum indicators in trending market. They indicate trend by crossing
certain levels, and by remaining above certain levels for longer period. They
fail to generate any further signals than that.
VOLATILITY
INDICATORS
Volatility indicators, attempts to measure the
volatility of a security's price action.
Unskilled
traders fear volatility, but trained and skilled day traders prefer increased
volatility as when the price are more volatile, more money can be made in a
short time.
Some
most popular Volatility indicators are mentioned below
1. Bollinger Bands
2.
Relative Volatility Index
No comments:
Post a Comment